USU coaching, schedule and predictions

A Movement II Moment

Part 1 of 4

USU Football is Upon Us

Utah State is about to start again this year looking to exceed expectations both in Logan and around the WAC.

They were picked to start seventh in the conference in the preseason media polls, one ahead of New Mexico State and two ahead of cupcake Idaho. Everything coming out of the aggie training camp is saying the team is thirsty for more.

For example, take this article by the Deseret News. Is it reasonable to assume that not in the last ten years has there been so much expected from the UtAgs?

Every year for the past 15 years, more or less, the question behind the Utah State football program has been, "How many games will the Ags lose this year?" or "Is it possible that USU could win a few for the home crowd, even if they fold on every away game?" or "Is it worth paying the $50+ to take my family to one of these games?" It certainly can be said that Aggie football has been about seeing the best programs come into Logan (if we could get them here) to roll all over the Aggies. My question here is the following - are these questions that belong to the past?

It certainly is normal for hype surrounding a program to increase after a coaching change. We saw similar things with Guy and his predecessors. Those coaches all gave reason to hope for a turnaround in the red-headed stepchild team in the state of Utah. (It's what USU football has been people - get over it.) HOWEVER, none of those coaches had strong Utah roots, had the recruiting credentials that Mr. Andersen has, nor the strong showing of a coaching presence on a national stage like Mr. Andersen has.

I don't care who you are - you cannot deny that the Ute Defense was everything including unstoppable last season. That defense was practically impenatrable. The mastermind behind that defense is now up north in Aggie blue.

Read carefully - ONLY AN IDIOT WOULD HOPE FOR MORE THAN SIX WINS FOR USU FOOTBALL THIS SEASON

So what can we in blue hope for? Let's break this year's schedule down game by game, starting with Utah this time and continuing through homecoming.

Opponent #1: The University of Utah Utes

Prediction: USU 9-28 Utah

Utah is coming off a Sugar Bowl win and a long and confusing off season. Utah lost only a couple offensive players, but those losses were really costly. Case in point, one Brian Johnson. Since then, Utah has been in limbo at the quarterback position. During spring ball, it was last year's backup, Corbin Louks who appears to have lost the confidence of the coaches. It was his job to lose - that much is clear. Now moving towards the start of the season, Louks has been battling Terrance Cain, a JuCo transfer for the job ever since. The battle has appeared so fierce that the Ute Coaching staff has not named a starter heading into training camp. Offensively, if Utah can't solidify a starter for this team before they face USU, the Aggies stand that much more of a chance of winning this football game. Keeping the Utes from scoring will be crucial, and if Anderson is able to whip a defensive unit trying to learn an entirely new scheme into shape, USU stands a reasonable chance of keeping the Ute offense in check.

That having been said, this game is a longshot - even with the defensive experience and brilliance of Anderson at the helm. I have to call the Aggies losing this game.

Let's be honest. Utah's defense may not have the same mind behind it, but it does have vastly superior talent to Utah State's offense. Last year, the only score that USU managed to get against the Utes was a 10-yard pass play Borel threw into the end zone after a fumbled punt return. It happened early, it happened fast, and then the Ute defense locked down and didn't let up for another grueling 56 minutes. That was that.

Look for more of the same from Utah this year. Especially since this game will be in Salt Lake City, the Ute Defense will not allow USU to score much, if at all. Everything in this game will depend on Borel's aptitude at reading and executing his offense, and how well the Aggie defense has been able to mold to Anderson's schemes. A good Aggie defense is the key to this one. The lower the score, the better.

Opponent #2: Aggies of Texas A&M

Prediction: USU 28-24 A&M

What? Dost I hear scoffing? Ok, so I am really going out on a limb here with this pick, and yes, my pick may be more influenced by hope than reality... BUT no one can deny that this win is possible. Why? Read on.

A&M is in the Big XII, yes. Yes, their schedule is much more difficult than Utah State. They play Oklahoma and Texas every year. Yes, the aspirations of A&M are much higher than USU's every year because of the mere possibility of a BCS game if they can win over 10 games. But, I do not believe that one will earn a victory this early in the season simply because of conference. By this game, A&M will probably have lost their first game against New Mexico and will be looking for an easy win in College Station. A fired up Utah State team will not allow it.

A&M went 4-8 last year, with their wins coming against illustrious teams like Colorado, who went 2-6 in conference, and Iowa State, who didn't win a single conference game last year. Their other wins came in a very close one against New Mexico and Army. This is not Oklahoma. This is not Texas. This is A&M. This is a team that has been going the way of the northern aggie for the last few seasons. They have had no direction.

Also, let it be said that I am no fan at all of the belief that conference entitles a team to a victory. May I cite the following games as examples: Wyoming-Tennessee 08; Hawaii-Washington 06; Utah-Pitt 05 (Fiesta Bowl); Utah-Alabama 09 (Sugar Bowl); BYU-Kansas State 96 (Cotton Bowl); BYU-Miami 90; and finally my best case in point, Boise St-Oklahoma 06 (Fiesta Bowl). There are just as many cases that a quality mid-major team can beat one of the BCS conference teams on the right day with the right matchup. Sure, USU is just going to be fighting for a winning season and a bowl berth, certainly not a BCS bowl berth, but this A&M team is beatable.

For USU, it will be a tall order, but a fillable one. I'm putting out the upset watch sign on this game.

Victim #1: errr...... Opponent #3: The Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Prediction: USU 42-6 SUU

Where to start with this game? This is the home opener for Utah State and the Aggie Homecoming game. Utah State will have every reason to win this game and should let loose on the small Division II opponent from Cedar City.

Not only is SUU a DII team, but they are a bottom dwelling DII team. Last year they went 4-7 in the Great West conference. The only D-1 FBS team that SUU faced last year was Air Force, and they were trounced 41-7. These guys are cupcakes, even more than Idaho and New Mexico State.

Much more than what I've just said is just statistic stacking. One sidenote that I think should be mentioned is the fact that Coach Andersen is a former head coach of SUU. In the first three games of the season, Gary will face the two teams he used to coach.

More to come... check in later.